An average estimation based on the forecasts of five brokerages and projection of the ET Intelligence Group, revenue for the top four IT players is expected to increase by 2.6% sequentially and by 15% from the year ago. Net profit is likely to fall by 2.5% from the quarter ago and to increase by 12% year-on-year. The sample includes TCS, Infosys, Wipro, and HCL Technologies.
"We expect a modest, flat to (around) 3%, sequential dollar denominated revenue growth in the December quarter, due to fewer working days and client specific challenges", mentioned Mital Ghosh and Kunal Tayal from Bank of America Merrill Lynch in a recent report. According to them, cuts in discretionary spends highlighted by some vendors may impact the demand for the quarter.
Profit margins are expected to remain under pressure compared with the previous quarter. IDFC mentioned in its report that margins are likely to remain in a narrow range of 50 basis points for large cap IT players with no major triggers.
Barring Wipro, other three players are likely to report a sequential drop in net profit for the December quarter. The loss of Infosys, the second largest among publicly listed IT players in the country, is expected to be the highest at 7% with Rs 2,203.7 crore in net profit. Wipro, on the other hand, is expected to report 1.1% sequential increase in net profit at Rs 1,628 crore.
Analysts expect a cautiously optimistic commentary from IT exporters on demand scenario in 2013. "Vendors could benefit from pent-up demand for transformation related IT spend and likely faster decision cycles post US Presidential elections.However, clients are proceeding cautiously stage by stage resulting in smaller projects sizes, lower visibility and delayed decisions," mentioned Bank of America Merrill Lynch in the report.
Infosys will kick start the IT quarterly results season on Friday January 11.
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