According to the brokerage, Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular will bid not more than Rs 22,000 crore each in next month's spectrum sale while pegging Vodafone India's bid at up to Rs 24,000 crore and Reliance 'Communications' at not more than Rs 6,000 crore. The operators are likely to factor in existing debt, incremental capex needs for data business and fallback cash reserves to acquire super-efficient 4G airwaves in the 700MHz band in the near future, HSBC has said.
The brokerage, however, said in a note to its clients that Bharti Airtel will have "enough headroom to add data spectrum in key markets where it has no 3G coverage (like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat) and or add data capacity in Delhi."
It also expects Bharti Airtel, India's leading mobile carrier, to face "no issues with 900MHz airwave renewals," unlike Idea, which it feels "will have little headroom to add incremental 3G spectrum as it faces 900MHz airwave renewals in nine circles, accounting for 73% of its revenues."
Therefore, HSBC sees "Idea splurging Rs 18,000 crore on 900MHz renewals and a modest Rs 4,000 crore for adding 3G airwaves in max two key markets" as a potential bidding scenario.
On the contrary, it expects Sunil Mittal-led Bharti Airtel to spend Rs 10,000 crore each on 900MHz renewals and expanding 3G spectrum coverage in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and adding capacity in Delhi. It also expects the company to set aside an extra Rs 2,000 crore to acquire 2G spectrum in the 1800MHz band.
As for Vodafone, HSBC expects India's second-largest mobile carrier to splurge as much Rs 12,500 crore on 900MHz renewals and up to Rs 12,000 crore additionally on 3G airwaves.
The brokerage, however, foresees 'significant risks' in RCOM renewing its 900MHz spectrum holdings in markets including Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Bihar, and says the Anil Ambani-led company could end up 'significantly overpaying' for renewing 900MHz spectrum in existing markets.
Analysts at HSBC said the potential release of 5MHz of 3G spectrum could 'reduce pressure on 900MHz renewals' while warning that the mere release of one block sets an erroneous pricing benchmark for 15MHz of residual spectrum with the defence ministry to be auctioned in future.
HSBC expects the operators to approach entering the next airwaves sale with pre-determined budgets in anticipation that the government will auction its 15MHz of residual 3G spectrum soon to contain the budget deficit. It also suggests that a nod to spectrum trading will allow "incumbents to leverage data spectrum from GSM new entrants in a more economical manner."
The brokerage also expects new GSM entrants like Uninor to compete for 3G spectrum in existing circles in an attempt to have a data strategy.
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